The Systemic Bubble of Artificial Intelligence and Debt: Why the Risk Is Real and What the Numbers Say
The wave of investment in artificial intelligence in recent years increasingly resembles a collective fever: vast capital flows, ambitious projects, sprawling data centers and multibillion-dollar acquisitions. Beneath the enthusiasm lie two dangerous dynamics that can converge into a systemic shock: overestimation of AI-driven future revenues and heavy indebtedness used to finance infrastructure and growth. Central banks, international organizations and market analysts report measurable signals that the risk is not theoretical. Why this is a bubble and not just hype A financial bubble appears when asset prices diverge from the economic fundamentals that should justify them. The AI case shows three classic bubble indicators: large and rapid capital flows concentrated in a few companies or sectors; revenue expectations difficult to realize in the short term; extensive use of debt and leverage that amplifies contagion risk. Current market behavior around AI has produced these signal...